A behavioral cobweb model with heterogeneous speculators

This paper aims at integrating heterogeneous boundedly rational speculators into the classical cobweb framework in which the producers have naive expectations. The net supply available to consumers thus depends on the positions of the speculators who switch between technical and fundamental forecast rules to predict prices. Our nonlinear, yet quite simple model has the potential to produce price dynamics which mimics the well-known cyclical price fluctuations of commodity markets. We show that if the number of speculators increases we first observe a pitchfork bifurcation and then a period doubling bifurcation. After infinitely many period doubling bifurcations the dynamics becomes chaoticcobweb theory, heterogeneous speculators, price dynamics, commodity markets, bifurcation

Genome-wide association meta-analyses and fine-mapping elucidate pathways influencing albuminuria

Abstract: Increased levels of the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (UACR) are associated with higher risk of kidney disease progression and cardiovascular events, but underlying mechanisms are incompletely understood. Here, we conduct trans-ethnic (n = 564,257) and European-ancestry specific meta-analyses of genome-wide association studies of UACR, including ancestry- and diabetes-specific analyses, and identify 68 UACR-associated loci. Genetic correlation analyses and risk score associations in an independent electronic medical records database (n = 192,868) reveal connections with proteinuria, hyperlipidemia, gout, and hypertension. Fine-mapping and trans-Omics analyses with gene expression in 47 tissues and plasma protein levels implicate genes potentially operating through differential expression in kidney (including TGFB1, MUC1, PRKCI, and OAF), and allow coupling of UACR associations to altered plasma OAF concentrations. Knockdown of OAF and PRKCI orthologs in Drosophila nephrocytes reduces albumin endocytosis. Silencing fly PRKCI further impairs slit diaphragm formation. These results generate a priority list of genes and pathways for translational research to reduce albuminuria

Target genes, variants, tissues and transcriptional pathways influencing human serum urate levels.

Elevated serum urate levels cause gout and correlate with cardiometabolic diseases via poorly understood mechanisms. We performed a trans-ancestry genome-wide association study of serum urate in 457,690 individuals, identifying 183 loci (147 previously unknown) that improve the prediction of gout in an independent cohort of 334,880 individuals. Serum urate showed significant genetic correlations with many cardiometabolic traits, with genetic causality analyses supporting a substantial role for pleiotropy. Enrichment analysis, fine-mapping of urate-associated loci and colocalization with gene expression in 47 tissues implicated the kidney and liver as the main target organs and prioritized potentially causal genes and variants, including the transcriptional master regulators in the liver and kidney, HNF1A and HNF4A. Experimental validation showed that HNF4A transactivated the promoter of ABCG2, encoding a major urate transporter, in kidney cells, and that HNF4A p.Thr139Ile is a functional variant. Transcriptional coregulation within and across organs may be a general mechanism underlying the observed pleiotropy between urate and cardiometabolic traits.The Genotype-Tissue Expression (GTEx) Project was supported by the Common Fund of the Office of the Director of the National Institutes of Health, and by NCI, NHGRI, NHLBI, NIDA, NIMH, and NINDS. Variant annotation was supported by software resources provided via the Caché Campus program of the InterSystems GmbH to Alexander Teumer

New genetic loci link adipose and insulin biology to body fat distribution.

Body fat distribution is a heritable trait and a well-established predictor of adverse metabolic outcomes, independent of overall adiposity. To increase our understanding of the genetic basis of body fat distribution and its molecular links to cardiometabolic traits, here we conduct genome-wide association meta-analyses of traits related to waist and hip circumferences in up to 224,459 individuals. We identify 49 loci (33 new) associated with waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for body mass index (BMI), and an additional 19 loci newly associated with related waist and hip circumference measures (P < 5 × 10(-8)). In total, 20 of the 49 waist-to-hip ratio adjusted for BMI loci show significant sexual dimorphism, 19 of which display a stronger effect in women. The identified loci were enriched for genes expressed in adipose tissue and for putative regulatory elements in adipocytes. Pathway analyses implicated adipogenesis, angiogenesis, transcriptional regulation and insulin resistance as processes affecting fat distribution, providing insight into potential pathophysiological mechanisms

Search for new particles in events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search is presented for new particles produced at the LHC in proton-proton collisions at root s = 13 TeV, using events with energetic jets and large missing transverse momentum. The analysis is based on a data sample corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 101 fb(-1), collected in 2017-2018 with the CMS detector. Machine learning techniques are used to define separate categories for events with narrow jets from initial-state radiation and events with large-radius jets consistent with a hadronic decay of a W or Z boson. A statistical combination is made with an earlier search based on a data sample of 36 fb(-1), collected in 2016. No significant excess of events is observed with respect to the standard model background expectation determined from control samples in data. The results are interpreted in terms of limits on the branching fraction of an invisible decay of the Higgs boson, as well as constraints on simplified models of dark matter, on first-generation scalar leptoquarks decaying to quarks and neutrinos, and on models with large extra dimensions. Several of the new limits, specifically for spin-1 dark matter mediators, pseudoscalar mediators, colored mediators, and leptoquarks, are the most restrictive to date.Peer reviewe

Combined searches for the production of supersymmetric top quark partners in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A combination of searches for top squark pair production using proton-proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV at the CERN LHC, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1) collected by the CMS experiment, is presented. Signatures with at least 2 jets and large missing transverse momentum are categorized into events with 0, 1, or 2 leptons. New results for regions of parameter space where the kinematical properties of top squark pair production and top quark pair production are very similar are presented. Depending on themodel, the combined result excludes a top squarkmass up to 1325 GeV for amassless neutralino, and a neutralinomass up to 700 GeV for a top squarkmass of 1150 GeV. Top squarks with masses from 145 to 295 GeV, for neutralino masses from 0 to 100 GeV, with a mass difference between the top squark and the neutralino in a window of 30 GeV around the mass of the top quark, are excluded for the first time with CMS data. The results of theses searches are also interpreted in an alternative signal model of dark matter production via a spin-0 mediator in association with a top quark pair. Upper limits are set on the cross section for mediator particle masses of up to 420 GeV

Probing effective field theory operators in the associated production of top quarks with a Z boson in multilepton final states at root s=13 TeV

Peer reviewe

Measurement of the W gamma Production Cross Section in Proton-Proton Collisions at root s=13 TeV and Constraints on Effective Field Theory Coefficients

A fiducial cross section for W gamma production in proton-proton collisions is measured at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV in 137 fb(-1) of data collected using the CMS detector at the LHC. The W -> e nu and mu nu decay modes are used in a maximum-likelihood fit to the lepton-photon invariant mass distribution to extract the combined cross section. The measured cross section is compared with theoretical expectations at next-to-leading order in quantum chromodynamics. In addition, 95% confidence level intervals are reported for anomalous triple-gauge couplings within the framework of effective field theory.Peer reviewe

Performance of the CMS muon trigger system in proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV

The muon trigger system of the CMS experiment uses a combination of hardware and software to identify events containing a muon. During Run 2 (covering 2015-2018) the LHC achieved instantaneous luminosities as high as 2 × 10 cm s while delivering proton-proton collisions at √s = 13 TeV. The challenge for the trigger system of the CMS experiment is to reduce the registered event rate from about 40 MHz to about 1 kHz. Significant improvements important for the success of the CMS physics program have been made to the muon trigger system via improved muon reconstruction and identification algorithms since the end of Run 1 and throughout the Run 2 data-taking period. The new algorithms maintain the acceptance of the muon triggers at the same or even lower rate throughout the data-taking period despite the increasing number of additional proton-proton interactions in each LHC bunch crossing. In this paper, the algorithms used in 2015 and 2016 and their improvements throughout 2017 and 2018 are described. Measurements of the CMS muon trigger performance for this data-taking period are presented, including efficiencies, transverse momentum resolution, trigger rates, and the purity of the selected muon sample. This paper focuses on the single- and double-muon triggers with the lowest sustainable transverse momentum thresholds used by CMS. The efficiency is measured in a transverse momentum range from 8 to several hundred GeV

Search for top squark production in fully hadronic final states in proton-proton collisions at root s=13 TeV

A search for production of the supersymmetric partners of the top quark, top squarks, is presented. The search is based on proton-proton collision events containing multiple jets, no leptons, and large transverse momentum imbalance. The data were collected with the CMS detector at the CERN LHC at a center-of-mass energy of 13 TeV, and correspond to an integrated luminosity of 137 fb(-1). The targeted signal production scenarios are direct and gluino-mediated top squark production, including scenarios in which the top squark and neutralino masses are nearly degenerate. The search utilizes novel algorithms based on deep neural networks that identify hadronically decaying top quarks and W bosons, which are expected in many of the targeted signal models. No statistically significant excess of events is observed relative to the expectation from the standard model, and limits on the top squark production cross section are obtained in the context of simplified supersymmetric models for various production and decay modes. Exclusion limits as high as 1310 GeVare established at the 95% confidence level on the mass of the top squark for direct top squark production models, and as high as 2260 GeV on the mass of the gluino for gluino-mediated top squark production models. These results represent a significant improvement over the results of previous searches for supersymmetry by CMS in the same final state.Peer reviewe